Baccarat is a casino game with a reputation for glamour, prestige, and exclusivity. It is often played in a separate alcove, away from the noise and excitement of other casino games and with real cash (typically $100 bills) instead of chips. It is also known for its high payouts, as the banker bet pays out a small commission and has a lower house edge than the player bet.
Although it may seem like a complicated and intimidating game, Baccarat is one of the easiest casino games to play. All that is required is to place a bet on which hand will total closer to nine – the player, the banker, or a tie. The croupier deals the cards, and the player or banker bets are determined by the players’ choices. The player bet pays out 1:1, while the banker bet pays a 5% to 10% commission depending on the casino.
The game has been played for centuries, and its roots can be traced back to medieval Italy. Today, it is still a favorite among casinos and high-rollers around the world. In fact, it is the most popular card game in Macau, where it was first introduced by Felix Falguiere in 1628. The name “baccarat” comes from the Italian word for zero, reflecting the fact that tens and face cards count as zero in the game.
Baccarat’s popularity and glamour have earned it a number of celebrity fans, including actor and director Daniel Craig who was the star of the recent James Bond movie, Spectre. The game is also featured in several of the other Bond films, including Dr. No, Thunderball, On Her Majesty’s Secret Service, For Your Eyes Only, and GoldenEye.
Our research provides a direct empirical examination of the phenomenon of positive recency in baccarat, and supports previous findings that people take fewer risks when betting on events whose outcomes have already been determined compared to those with uncertain outcome (e.g., roulette, lotteries). However, the results of this study suggest that factors specific to baccarat may interact with other cognitive distortions to promote trend-following behavior in this game.
To analyze baccarat wagering patterns, we used data from SEGA SAMMY HOLDINGS, which collects a unique player ID for each customer and records all baccarat plays throughout the day using a computer-based system that recognizes cards and chip placement. This allows us to divide the data into independent groups based on whether customers bet against the trend or followed it. This separation enables more reliable analysis of the impact of the hot outcome fallacy on wagering patterns.
We used this data to identify customers who placed at least 70 baccarat bets in a given day, as evidence of substantial engagement with the game. These customers were then divided into two groups, with half of them being randomly selected to participate in our study. This process was done to ensure that the results were not biased by individual characteristics such as age and ethnicity.